MBA’s Forecast for 2015: 7% Increase in Mortgage Originations

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There will be an increase of 7% in mortgage originations in 2015 compared to 2014, according to the forecast of the Mortgage Bankers Association. They are expected to reach $1.19 trillion next year.

The home purchase loan originations are forecasted to increase by 15% and to reach a level of $731 billion in 2015. The mortgage refinance originations are projected to decline by 3% to $457 billion. Despite the projected annual decrease in refinance originations, MBA forecasts that they will experience increase in the short term. The short-term growth in refinance will be driven by the lower mortgage rates and by the equity gains of many home owners in the past few years.

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The chief economist of the MBA, Michael Fratantoni, said that the forecast for increase in home purchase loan originations in 2015 was based on the course of growth of the U.S. economy, the job gains and the falling unemployment. He noted that the labor market had experienced sustained improvement in 2014 resulting in more payroll jobs and job openings. The forecast is that the strong growth in employment and the low mortgage loan rates will lead to increase in home sales and home purchase loan originations.

The MBA’s forecast is for 2.9% economic growth in 2015 and 2.4% in 2016. It will be driven by higher consumer spending and by increase in the fixed investments made by businesses. The average monthly job growth will be 222,000 in 2015. The unemployment rate is projected to decrease to 5.4% by the end of next year. It is expected to decline further in 2016 reaching a level of 5.2%.

The MBA projects that the 10-Year Treasury rate will remain under 3% during the first six months of 2015 due to the global issues experienced at present. If there is improvement in the global situation, the rate is expected to increase above 3% in the second half of the year.



Christian Calvin mortgage Christian is a contributing writer for He is a graduate from the University of Tennessee with a degree in Communications and a concentration in Broadcasting. Christian has served as vice-president for a privately-held company for more than 20 years. Additionally, he has also applied his writing and business knowledge to various websites with a focus on business and sports news . . . both of which are passions. Christian enjoys playing golf and spending time with his family and friends.


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